Over 23 million additional children at risk of poverty as Middle East conflict drives global economic shock – UNICEF

NEW YORK, 16 July 2026 – Up to 23.4 million additional children could fall into monetary poverty by the end of the year, as ongoing tensions in the Middle East and related shipping disruptions continue to have a damaging and potentially irreversible impact on children, according to a new analysis by UNICEF released today.

The Impact of the Middle East War on Children in Monetarily Poor Households draws on data from over 167 countries and highlights how rising food and energy prices, and broader economic shocks resulting from escalating hostilities – including disruptions linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – are eroding what households can afford to buy. Children in the poorest households are disproportionately affected. 

“Children are paying the price for the escalating conflict in the Middle East, including children far beyond the region,” said UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell. “The longer this continues, the worse the consequences will be. Rapidly rising costs are making food and education unaffordable for many families. For children already living in poverty, these shocks deepen deprivation and can cause harm that lasts a lifetime.”

The report examines two possible scenarios: adverse and severe poverty. The adverse scenario reflects a moderate economic shock that could push an additional 18.3 million children into monetary poverty, while the severe scenario assumes stronger, more prolonged disruptions to prices and economic activity and projects that 23.4 additional children could be pushed into monetary poverty if the war continues. 

The analysis shows that child monetary poverty is highly sensitive to macroeconomic shocks. Increasing food and energy costs, combined with limited fiscal space in many countries, are directly reducing families’ ability to meet basic needs. 

The largest proportions of the global increase in monetary poverty are in Asia and Africa, with the two regions accounting for around 80 per cent of the total increase. Both continents reflect high baseline poverty rates and high vulnerability to external shocks. 

For example, in Somalia, the Middle East crisis has had immediate consequences. Fuel prices in Mogadishu more than doubled within days of the escalation, increasing the cost of food, water, transport and humanitarian assistance as the country grapples with a deepening malnutrition crisis. 

In Ethiopia, disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz have driven up fuel costs, with a knock-on effect on daily essentials. Diesel prices have risen by 31 per cent and humanitarian fuel costs have gone up by 50-70 per cent, making it more difficult to deliver aid to hard-to-reach communities.

In Nigeria, the economic shocks have exacerbated poverty. Low-income households spend between 60-70 per cent of their income on food and transport, meaning even a slight increase in prices reduces their purchasing power. 

Across Bangladesh, the rising cost of staple foods such as rice, lentils, cooking oil, vegetables, fish and poultry, is putting increasing pressure on families, and an estimated 1.2 million more people could fall into poverty. 

The report warns that the repercussions of the war are resulting in a reversal of years of global progress, and without timely and targeted policy responses, the crisis will push millions of children further behind, increasing the poverty gap and making it harder for families to recover.  It is limiting families’ access to food, healthcare, education, and protection services, which are needed to ensure children’s physical and cognitive development. 

UNICEF is calling on national governments, donor governments, and international financial institutions to protect children from the worst impacts of the crisis. Priority actions include: 

• Safeguarding domestic and international funding for services and supplies children rely on, including health, nutrition, education and child protection. 
   
• Scaling up and sustaining social protection systems, including child-sensitive cash transfers, ensuring continuity of support before subsidies are removed.
   
• Facilitating children and families’ uninterrupted access to affordable essential services and supplies, including through minimum spending floors that rise with inflation.  
  
  Expanding fiscal space to protect domestic investment in essential services, including through debt-service suspension or debt restructuring in contexts where debt servicing exceeds spending on health, education, or social protection. 
   
• Setting up and implementing child-focused preparedness systems that allow support to reach children rapidly and at scale when shocks hit, including through global cooperation to mitigate the impact of evolving and future shocks.
   

“This crisis is putting the lives and futures of children at risk. If the world fails to act swiftly, the combined effects of conflict, economic instability and rising costs will push millions of children into deeper poverty,” said Russell. “We could see hard-earned development gains unravel.”

 #####
 

Notes for editors: 

Due to ongoing conflict and data limitations, the report notes that only a fraction of countries in the Middle East are included in the global totals, and that no separate estimates for the Middle East and North Africa region are included in the report. Instead, the Middle Eastern countries for which there is data are reported on their respective continental aggregates.

Methodology note: The report looks at two scenarios, adverse and severe. The adverse scenario adopts a conservative approach by attributing only positive inflation deviations relative to the no-war baseline to the crisis environment. The severe scenario represents a substantially stronger deterioration in macroeconomic conditions associated with a prolonged or intensified crisis environment 

In line with the World Bank/PIP methodology, poverty is assessed against international poverty lines corresponding to low-income and lower-middle-income standards: US$3.00 and US$4.20 per person per day, respectively. National poverty lines are also used where data permit, although these are only used for countries with official national poverty lines or published national poverty estimates from which the poverty line can be inferred in order to ensure consistency.
 
Multimedia materials available here.